Besides the clairvoyance
in the art of fortune tellers, we have many example cases in which
animals are moving according to their own given natural intuition. Of course, there are many errors
in their lives and we must study them in detail as follows. We can define two types error in the intuitive behavior of
flying birds in wood. First error is a FALSE POSITIVE and the second error is a FALSE NEGATIVE. In the false
positive error, a bird in wood zooms in on a suspected caterpillar worm that is actually a twig. In the
false negative error, a bird zooms in on a real caterpillar worm but misunderstands the worm as a twig.
A bird will loose energy and time in the false positive error and loose food in the false negative error.
To keep live on in the wood, a bird must learn the best balance between two kinds of errors through trainings. We can study the possible limit of errors by the statistical analysis.
We have to study the
fortune or misfortune of the bird if we must study the born ability of specific bird observed. Unfortunately,
if the surrounding condition of the forest has altered and the bird must move to the next forest. We have
to consider in new forest the problems of attack from the predators that might eat the bird. Or otherwise,
the atmosphere of new forest may be peace with ample of foods for the bird.
Although the scientist will
call it as the survival of the fittest, the fortune of individual animal must be the vital problem for the bird.We are the most advanced creatures on earth and we human should have to experience the similar life of
a bird in the forest encountered. ISAAC NEWTON (1642-1727) found the universal gravity by looking at an apple
that has slipped out from a twig. Before him many people have observed the dropping apples for many
thousand years and still no one could study the law of universal gravity except Newton. The person who has
believed the action of god that made the apple moved would be classified with a false negative error.
Such person has failed to understand the real target and escaped from the duty in the fault of undoing.
Another person who has challenged to solve the reason of dropping apple without having a proper knowledge
of physics would be classified with a false positive error. Such person has dissipated own energy similar to a
bird that attacked the twig in mistake thus failed to get caterpillar eaten. Human civilization has been developed
by those people who studied a difficult invention with rare success. There are many person failed without success. Is it necessary for human civilization to study a horoscope of distinguished winner of human race such as Newton?
Or otherwise the lost people who were failed to get reputation after the efforts of challenging champions? We must
consider seriously from the depth the future development of astrology in advising the people for their life guide. Further note on the gravity of a planet in the astrology will be described in the next page.
以外に、地球上の生物が直感により行動している例は多数存在します。
しかし、直感行動が誤っていた例も多数存在します。そこで、直感と誤謬について考えてみましょう。
誤謬には2種類の間違えがあります。偽陽性（ぎ・ようせい）の誤謬は間違えを肯定して行動します。
たとえば、森の中を飛び回る小鳥が虫をとるのに小枝を芋虫と間違えて攻撃をする場合です。これに対して、
偽陰性（ぎ・いんせい）の誤謬は間違えを恐れて行動しない場合です。自然界で生き延びるためには、
間違えを恐れないで行動しなければ、小鳥は何時までも餌をとることができません。しかし、間違えを何度も
繰り返せば、無駄な行動のために疲れはてるので生きてゆけません。自然界で生き延びるためには、偽陽性と偽陰性の二種類の誤謬の
中間に存在する妥協を訓練で習得して、ある程度の誤りを許しながら生活をしているのです。
