統計確率　１１　　PROBABILITY 11 　石川源晃著

Some further explanation for deserting the null hypothesis indicated by the white circle demonstrated in the previous page will be helpful. Imagine we have a bag with ten same sized balls within. Each ball will be colored either in red or blue prepared. We have set the hypothesis that the red balls will be the same number of blue balls. We pick up the first ball and record its color then we put it in the bag again. After repeating the similar action then we have recorded nine red balls out of ten times trials. Any one will agree that the hypothesis set should be deserted. In case when the hypothesis will be true, the probability to see the first pick up ball in red will be p=0.5 or one half chance. The probability to get nine red balls after ten trials will be p=0.01 or the odds against chance in 100 to one. Therefore the hypothesis must be deserted on the region of probability found in p=0.01 or less that is the area of while circles demonstrated.

The study in the prior probability either in the distribution of births in a certain country or in the change of moving rate of solar bodies will be useful to rectify the example data. We must recognize the fact in these studies that the data found in the upper space of the above illustration will only be reliable for the astrological works. Traditional study to compare the obtained examples will be unreliable and such examples may be easily altered with the works of other students unless we can prove the test of mathematical statistics cleared.

Three hundred thousand reports approx in the previous page are mostly classified under black circles which are not enough to be significant to deny the null hypothesis set for the denial of the reliability of astrology tested. The logical construction of western astrology should have to pass enough the test of reliability. Only few white circles are found to pass the reliability test. The cases including the reports on 430 Nobel laureates compiled by R.Tate, on 576 aircraft disasters compiled by H. M. Ishikawa or this author, on 1464 actors compiled by R. Gleadow, on 1970 surgeons compiled by P. Field, on 1973 UK clergymen compiled by R. C. Firebrace, on 2303 artists compiled by H. J. Cooper, on 2492 US clergymen compiled by D. A. Bradley, on 3257 musicians compiled by P. R. Farnsworth and the report on 6554 idiots complied by E. Huntington are marked in white circles. Above distinguish reports are mostly made after the later part of the Twentieth Century. Unfortunately, those of reports made by well-known authors released in the early part of the Twentieth Century that are translated in Japan are classified under the black circles. Thus the traits of either FEAW or CFM or the traits of twelve signs in those reports are not significant and such reports are only classified in black circles found close to the range of accidental coincidence. Particularly in the data from US birth born before 1936, the birth day found in either December 25 or January 1 or July 4 might not be reliable as the people preferred to make registration in one of these three days intentionally.

単語のサイト内の検索はトップで・to TOP